The Great Rotation? Summer update with Lance Peltz.

Is the AI trade beginning to unwind - and could the UK market finally be having its moment?

In this episode of Bassline, Dave Wallace is joined by Lance Peltz, Chief Investment Officer at Cavendish Ware, to examine the forces moving global markets.

They begin with the UK stock market’s push towards record territory. Lance explains why Britain’s concentration of energy, mining, financial and pharmaceutical companies may now be working in its favour as investors rotate away from the dominant AI stocks.

The conversation then turns to the enormous sums being invested in AI infrastructure. Chipmakers, memory manufacturers, generator producers and power-management companies have enjoyed remarkable growth, but Lance warns that momentum investing works brilliantly—until it suddenly does not. With new manufacturing capacity being built and retail investors arriving late, could the familiar semiconductor cycle be about to reassert itself?

Dave and Lance also explore the changing balance of supply and demand in US equities. The technology giants are spending heavily on data centres, borrowing more and buying back fewer shares, while a wave of major companies prepares to enter the public markets. Lance explains why this shift in liquidity may matter more than small changes in interest rates—and why parts of the market remind him of the dotcom era.

Attention then moves to the continuing conflict involving Iran and the United States. Despite disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have remained more restrained than many expected. Lance considers the role of American production, Chinese reserves and changing regional trade flows, while warning that depleted inventories, rising food costs and persistent geopolitical tension could still produce another inflationary shock.

Finally, the discussion returns to Britain and the arrival of Andy Burnham in Downing Street. What might a more left-leaning government mean for spending, taxation and consumer confidence? With limited room to raise conventional taxes, Lance considers whether pensions and housing wealth could become the focus of the next Budget.

In this episode

• Why the UK market is benefiting from a global rotation
• Whether enthusiasm for AI infrastructure has gone too far
• The risks facing momentum investors
• Why semiconductor booms tend to create their own downturns
• How hyperscaler spending is changing US equity markets
• The importance of liquidity, valuations and bond yields
• Why the oil market has remained surprisingly resilient
• The inflationary risks posed by energy, fertiliser and food
• How Cavendish Ware is positioning portfolios
• What the “Burnham effect” could mean for Britain
• Why pensions and property may face greater taxation

This podcast is provided for general information and discussion only. Nothing in the episode constitutes personal financial or investment advice. Investments can fall as well as rise, and past performance is not a reliable guide to future returns.

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