Bassline Episode 23

In this special Budget edition of Bassline, Dave is joined by Adrian and Lance for a frank, occasionally exasperated, unpacking of what was billed as one of the most hyped UK budgets in years. That hype, they agree, was largely fuelled by weeks of political kite-flying, leaks, reversals, and noise. When the moment finally arrived, the reality felt underwhelming.

All three describe a budget shaped more by political caution than genuine economic strategy — with major measures postponed years into the future, uncertainty built in, and little that resembles a credible plan for growth. The ongoing freeze on allowances (‘fiscal drag’) is likely to be the largest source of revenue, yet it affects nearly everyone. Meanwhile, adjustments to dividend, savings, and rental income tax are seen as regressive and unlikely to generate much revenue.

They also question the logic of changes such as reducing the cash ISA allowance and the long-term introduction of a “mansion tax”-style measure, which appears more like the start of a wealth-tax conversation than a serious revenue raiser.

From a market perspective, Lance explains that gilts and FX barely reacted, suggesting relief more than confidence. He notes the UK remains inexpensive by global standards but faces structural headwinds, so he has been rotating some exposure towards Asia and emerging markets.

Bright spots do exist — mostly things not done. Pension tax-free cash remains intact, inheritance tax reforms didn't materialise, and some pension rules have now been clarified, providing advisers with a clearer path for future planning. However, nothing in the budget prompts immediate action from clients.

The conversation closes with a shared sense of anticlimax. The UK’s entrepreneurial backbone — small businesses — receives little meaningful support, and uncertainty hangs over almost every long-dated measure. “Meh” becomes the most honest verdict.